Draft Stonk ICP Alignment - Confirmed

Confirmed approval record for $icp. Output path: alignment/icp-draft-stonk.html.

Summary

Confirmed primary ICP: finance-curious social retail players.

Approval result: canonical files were approved for the flat research/ path, with retail B2C ranked above college clubs and real-prize competitors mentioned only as risk evidence.

Canonical outputs: research/icp.md and research/icp-search-log.md. No research/.progress.yaml or task files were approved by the file-change gate.

The Stage 2 preview below is preserved as the review record. The approval gates supersede preview sections that recommended college clubs as primary.

Approval Record

alignment_page: "alignment/icp-draft-stonk.html"
approval_status: ready-for-agent-review
gate_answers:
  - section: "Scope Resolution"
    gate_type: "artifact-destination"
    status: "answered"
    answer: "Use flat research/ path"
    target_path: "research/icp.md"
  - section: "ICP Candidates"
    gate_type: "candidate-verdict"
    status: "answered"
    answer: "Finance-curious social retail players"
    target_path: "research/icp.md"
  - section: "Scoring Matrix"
    gate_type: "assumptions-confidence"
    status: "answered"
    answer: "Retail B2C should rank above college clubs"
    target_path: "research/icp.md"
  - section: "Evidence Matrix"
    gate_type: "evidence-coverage"
    status: "answered"
    answer: "Evidence is sufficient for initial ICP artifact"
    target_path: "research/icp-search-log.md"
  - section: "Recommended Path And File Changes"
    gate_type: "proposed-file-changes"
    status: "answered"
    answer: "Approve research/icp.md and research/icp-search-log.md only"
    target_path: "research/icp.md"
  - section: "Approval Gates"
    gate_type: "scope-non-goals"
    status: "answered"
    answer: "Mention real-prize competitors only as risk evidence"
    target_path: "research/icp.md"
  - section: "Approval Gates"
    gate_type: "coverage-checkpoint"
    status: "answered"
    answer: "Approved to write canonical artifacts"
    target_path: "research/icp.md"
section_feedback:
  []

Scope Resolution

Product Path

No active research/, specs/, or tasks/ directory exists after the reset. No research/.progress.yaml manifest exists. The run is therefore in flat single-product mode.

Active Inputs

Active source files are README.md, concept.md, desk-flip-report.md, AGENTS.md, CLAUDE.md, and .agents/project.json.

Archived Evidence

The old app, old research, old specs, and old task plans are archived under archive/2026-06-01-104829/. They are used only as historical evidence, not active requirements.

Business Model Classification

Primary current classification: B2B2C community-led wedge over a B2C game. Secondary classifications: B2C PLG/community-led and education-adjacent. Real-money contests, paid entry fees, cash prizes, brokerage links, and investment-advice framing remain out of scope.

Scope Gate

The default recommendation is to write flat files under research/ because there is one active product concept and no active product-path manifest.

Required Question

Which artifact destination should be used after approval?

ICP Candidates

1. College Finance And Investment Clubs

Recommended primaryB2B2C

Club officers need recurring, credible, low-friction ways to make market discussion participatory. Members want competition and practice without needing real money. Evidence includes active 2026 stock pitch and portfolio competitions, identifiable clubs, public deadlines, team formats, and prize pools.

Core pain: formal pitch competitions and paper trading are useful but can be slow, intimidating, or organizer-heavy for casual participation.

2. Finance-Curious Social Retail Players

B2CLarge market

Young retail investors and finance-curious users learn through social media, friends, family, search, Reddit, TikTok, YouTube, and mobile apps. They have frequent market-opinion triggers, but their willingness-to-pay and repeat behavior for a standalone fantasy stock game are less directly evidenced.

Core pain: social market opinions are common, but group chats and brokerage watchlists do not settle bragging rights.

3. Fantasy Sports Friend Groups

B2C socialMetaphor fit

Fantasy players already understand drafts, standings, leagues, and social rituals. The audience is huge and culturally aligned with "fantasy football, but for stocks." The missing evidence is stock-interest overlap and non-seasonal retention.

Core pain: they understand the game format instantly, but may not care enough about stocks without a market-story trigger.

4. Finance Creators And Community Operators

Partner-ledHigher risk

Creators, Discord operators, and newsletters need ways to turn opinions into engagement. This segment has distribution leverage but creates higher trust, moderation, and investment-advice risk before the product has guardrails.

Core pain: engagement is scattered across posts, Discord threads, watchlists, and claims that are hard to verify.

5. Personal Finance And Economics Educators

EducationDeferred

Educators already use stock market simulations to teach finance and economics. This validates learn-by-doing demand, but existing incumbents are curriculum-rich and the product would need school procurement, privacy, and standards alignment.

Core pain: teachers want engagement and safe practice, but this is a different product and sales motion.

Candidate Gate

The recommendation is to select college finance/investment clubs as the initial ICP while preserving the broad B2C consumer as the mass-market expansion hypothesis.

Required Question

Which primary ICP should the canonical research artifact use?

Scoring Matrix

ICP Candidate Pain Intensity WTP Quality Accessibility Evidence Strength Verdict
College finance and investment clubs 4.2/5 - recurring need for events, member engagement, and accessible stock-picking activities. 4.0/5 - public prize pools, team formats, sponsored events, and existing simulation usage show budget or organizer-energy proxies. 4.6/5 - clubs and competitions are named, searchable, and calendar-driven. Medium-high Best primary ICP for first research artifact.
Finance-curious social retail players 4.0/5 - strong market-opinion and social-learning signals. 2.2/5 - active spend is unclear; behavior skews free/social/mobile. 3.0/5 - large but diffuse; platform algorithms and communities are hard to reach without product proof. Medium Best mass-market expansion audience, weaker first wedge.
Fantasy sports friend groups 3.7/5 - draft and standings behavior is proven; stock interest is inferred. 3.0/5 - fantasy players spend on rituals and leagues, but not necessarily stock games. 3.2/5 - large audience, seasonal access around fantasy football. Medium Strong positioning frame, not enough stock-specific evidence to lead.
Finance creators and community operators 3.8/5 - engagement and proof-of-track-record pain is real. 3.5/5 - communities and creators monetize, but partner access and trust risk are high. 2.3/5 - relationship-driven and compliance-sensitive. Low-medium Defer until guardrails are stronger.
Personal finance and economics educators 3.5/5 - engagement need is validated. 4.0/5 - institutions pay or partner for curriculum/simulation programs. 2.5/5 - longer procurement, FERPA/COPPA/privacy needs, standards alignment. Medium-high Different product surface; not the fresh-start ICP.

Staff-engineer challenge: the most elegant ICP choice is not the broadest market. It is the segment where the product can get repeated, observable use fastest without inventing a new behavior. College clubs already create stock-picking rituals; Draft Stonk would need to prove it makes those rituals easier and more fun, not invent demand from scratch.

Scoring Gate

The scoring distinguishes pain from WTP. Retail players have high pain/opportunity but weak WTP evidence. Clubs have narrower reach but stronger access and budget/effort proxies.

Required Question

Does the scoring overweight or underweight any segment?

Proposed research/icp.md Content

This is the proposed canonical artifact content, excluding the final ## Next Steps section until approval because the pre-approval gate forbids downstream routing language.

Title And Classification

Draft Stonk ICP Research

Primary ICP: U.S. college finance and investment club officers, plus active student members, who need a low-friction way to turn market opinions into a competitive, non-advisory activity for meetings, recruiting, and member engagement.

Business model classification: B2B2C community-led wedge into a B2C fantasy stock game. The club officer or student leader is the initial customer/organizer, while club members are the daily users. The broader consumer path remains B2C community-led PLG. Education-adjacent opportunities exist but should remain distinct from the first ICP because they introduce curriculum, privacy, procurement, and standards requirements.

Customer Profile

The primary customer is a student officer, investment-club board member, finance society leader, or highly active member at a U.S. college or university. They organize meetings, competitions, workshops, recruiting events, and market discussions. They need formats that help beginners participate without requiring formal valuation work, real-money trading, or investment recommendations.

The buyer/user relationship is mixed. The organizer decides whether to use a game format in a meeting or event. The daily users are members who want to make a pick, compete, learn by doing, and compare outcomes with peers. The product must therefore satisfy the organizer's need for credibility and low setup while giving members a fast, social payoff.

Geographic focus: United States first. The active concept uses U.S. public equities, U.S. college clubs are easily identifiable, and U.S. securities-advice constraints make the no-prize/no-advice posture important from day one.

Named accounts that fit: Notre Dame Investment Club; University of South Florida Investment Club; Boulevard Investment Group at SMU; UC Irvine Investment and Trading Group; Georgetown Undergraduate Stock Pitch Competition; University of Georgia Student Managed Investment Fund; University of Cincinnati Lindner Investment Challenge; UChicago Blue Chips Investment Club; Wharton Undergraduate Finance Club; student finance clubs using The Stock Market Game or Investopedia-style simulators.

Business Model and Go-to-Market Motion: B2B2C community-led, with a self-serve game experience for student members. The motion should be treated as organizer-led discovery, not enterprise sales. This artifact does not recommend pricing or packaging.

User Profile(s)

Organizer user: officer or active member responsible for planning a club meeting, recruiting event, market challenge, or beginner-friendly activity. They are likely finance-interested and comfortable with tickers, but they may not want to teach a full valuation lesson for every activity.

Participant user: student member who wants a lighter-weight way to test market instincts. They may be a beginner, a finance major, a fantasy sports player, a Reddit/TikTok finance consumer, or someone preparing for a more formal pitch competition.

Adjacent user: faculty advisor or school-affiliated sponsor who cares about framing, disclaimers, privacy, and whether the activity looks like a game rather than trading advice.

Trigger Events

  1. Semester kickoff and recruiting: clubs need accessible events for new members before formal stock-pitch work begins.
  2. Meeting programming gaps: officers need repeatable activities when there is no guest speaker or prepared pitch.
  3. Market headlines: earnings, AI stocks, meme-stock moves, IPOs, rate decisions, and selloffs create quick "who called it?" moments.
  4. Competition prep: students preparing for stock pitch or portfolio competitions need lower-pressure practice.
  5. Fantasy sports draft season: draft language is culturally salient and can make the metaphor easier to explain.

Frequency and urgency are highest around semester calendars, recruiting, recurring meetings, and major market-news weeks. Those triggers are more predictable than general consumer market curiosity.

Current State Journey

  1. An officer needs an activity or a member wants to turn a market take into a challenge.
  2. The group currently uses a stock pitch format, paper-trading contest, spreadsheet, Investopedia-style simulator, group chat, Discord thread, or informal debate.
  3. Beginners face friction: they may not know valuation, trade mechanics, or why share price alone is not a fair comparison.
  4. Existing simulations often ask users to manage a virtual portfolio, which is slower and more trading-like than a quick game.
  5. Formal competitions require slides, deadlines, judging, and sometimes professional panels.
  6. Casual stock claims disappear unless someone creates rules, records picks, prevents duplicates, and tracks returns.
  7. The organizer either spends time creating structure manually or defaults to a more passive meeting format.

Pain Map

High severity, high frequency: organizers need repeatable member-engagement activities; beginners need a low-pressure way to participate; current alternatives are either too formal, too slow, or too brokerage-like; stock opinions are easy to make but hard to settle fairly.

Medium severity, high frequency: clubs need an activity that works on mobile; students need company-name and ticker support; officers need language that avoids advice and real-money implications.

High severity, lower frequency: cash prizes, paid entry fees, creator-hosted public challenges, or buy/sell language can create securities-law, gambling-law, trust, and school-compliance risk.

Current Alternatives (User Perspective)

Market Sizing

TAM, top-down: large adjacent markets exist: FSGA reports 62.5 million fantasy sports players in the U.S. and Canada in 2022, and FINRA/CFA report that 56 percent of U.S. Gen Z ages 18 to 25 owned at least one investment. SIFMA Foundation reports nearly 20 million students served by The Stock Market Game since 1977, validating broad stock-simulation education demand.

SAM, bottom-up: the near-term reachable market is U.S. college finance clubs, investment clubs, student-managed funds, finance societies, and business clubs that run recurring meetings, competitions, or paper-trading activities. Public competition pages show teams, deadlines, and prize pools, making this segment more discoverable than a diffuse consumer audience.

SOM, early: a realistic first obtainable market is a small set of club pilots across universities where officers can run a draft-style stock challenge in a meeting and observe whether members replay, share, or request another round.

Confidence: medium. Adjacent demand and access are strong; the specific willingness to use a fantasy stock draft instead of formal pitch or portfolio competition remains unvalidated.

Stated Value Drivers

What matters in this segment is not professional-grade stock research. The value driver is making market curiosity participatory. The "aha" moment is a member seeing that their stock pick has been captured, compared fairly, and turned into a scoreboard without needing a brokerage account, real money, or a formal pitch deck.

Likely customer language: "We need an activity new members can actually join"; "paper trading takes too much setup"; "stock pitches are intimidating"; "we need something fun for a meeting"; "we want people talking about markets without telling anyone what to buy."

Willingness-To-Pay Signals

Customer ↔ User Dynamics

The organizer needs trust, ease, and clear non-advisory framing. The participant needs speed, competition, and enough stock context to make a pick. If the organizer experience is heavy, the game will not be used in meetings. If the participant experience feels like homework or brokerage software, the game will lose the casual users who make the group dynamic work.

Post-adoption dynamics are cohort-based. A successful first session can create replay pressure, rematches, and recurring meeting use. A failed session likely dies quickly because the organizer has many other meeting formats available.

Discovery & Evaluation Behavior

Club officers discover tools through peer clubs, finance society networks, school events, advisors, LinkedIn, Discord, Reddit, existing simulators, and search. They evaluate based on how quickly members understand the activity, whether it feels credible, whether it avoids advice/prize risk, whether it works on mobile, and whether it creates visible participation during a meeting.

This segment chooses tools by trying them in a low-risk meeting or pilot. The best evaluation behavior to validate is whether officers can recruit members into a first draft without a long explanation and whether members ask to replay.

Additional ICPs

Finance-Curious Social Retail Players

Customer/user: young retail investors, finance-curious consumers, and social-media-informed market watchers. Pain: they see and share market opinions but lack a low-risk scoreboard for bragging rights. Alternatives: brokerage watchlists, screenshots, paper trading, Reddit/TikTok debates, fantasy stock games. Market size: large, supported by FINRA/CFA, NFCS, and YouGov social-investing evidence. WTP: weak until repeat behavior is proven. Verdict: strongest mass-market expansion hypothesis, but not the best first wedge.

Fantasy Sports Friend Groups

Customer/user: groups that already run drafts, league chats, punishments, and standings. Pain: fantasy sports rituals are proven, but there is no simple stock equivalent for casual groups. Alternatives: fantasy sports platforms, office pools, group chats, informal challenges. Market size: large adjacent audience via FSGA. WTP: fantasy players spend on rituals, but stock interest overlap is unproven. Verdict: excellent positioning language and seasonal channel, secondary ICP.

Finance Creators And Community Operators

Customer/user: newsletter writers, TikTok/YouTube finance creators, Discord admins, stock-community operators. Pain: they need engagement mechanics and proof of picks without advice framing. Alternatives: Discord calls, watchlists, polls, leaderboards, portfolio screenshots, community sentiment tools. Market size: high upside, hard to quantify. WTP: stronger than consumers if the product drives engagement, but trust and compliance risk are high. Verdict: defer until non-advisory guardrails and moderation assumptions are proven.

Personal Finance And Economics Educators

Customer/user: teachers, curriculum coordinators, afterschool programs, and financial-literacy organizations. Pain: they need engaging simulations that teach finance safely. Alternatives: The Stock Market Game, Rapunzl, StockTrak, PersonalFinanceLab, classroom simulators. Market size and WTP: validated by established programs. Verdict: distinct product path because procurement, privacy, curriculum, and standards are central.

Cross-ICP Analysis

Shared pains: users want low-risk practice, visible comparison, and a reason to care about market movement. Organizers and communities need participation mechanics that avoid real-money exposure and investment advice.

Conflicts: clubs value credibility and repeatable event use; fantasy friend groups value speed and social energy; creators value engagement and distribution; educators value curriculum and privacy. One product story cannot credibly satisfy all four at launch.

Prioritization: start research and prototype validation with college finance/investment clubs because access and event triggers are strongest. Preserve finance-curious retail and fantasy sports audiences as positioning tests. Defer creators and educators until compliance, trust, and product-surface assumptions are clearer.

Build sequence rationale, in problem-space terms: validate whether a club setting can produce fast comprehension, participation, replay intent, and share/invite behavior. If that fails, broad B2C will likely be harder because it has less structure and weaker urgency.

Discovery and evaluation comparison: clubs evaluate through meetings and pilots; retail players evaluate through immediate fun and shareability; fantasy groups evaluate through familiarity and group adoption; creators evaluate through audience engagement and reputation risk; educators evaluate through standards, privacy, and learning outcomes.

Signals For Downstream Research

Proposed research/icp-search-log.md Content

Query Log

# Query Strategy Relevant Sources Found Finding
1Fantasy sports participation and demographicsFSGA industry pageFantasy sports is a large adjacent behavior; FSGA reports 62.5M U.S./Canada players in 2022, 19% U.S. adult participation, strong draft-party rituals.
2Gen Z investing and social mediaFINRA/CFA Gen Z report releaseU.S. Gen Z investors use social media, search, family, YouTube, TikTok, Reddit, and other channels for investing information.
32024 investor information sourcesFINRA Foundation NFCS investor surveyYoung investors rely heavily on word of mouth, mobile apps, and social media channels; social channels correlate inversely with age.
4Young investor behavior and digital-first channelsYouGov Gen Z/Millennial investor profileYounger investors are community-informed, digital-first, and cost-conscious; social media influences their investing more than it does older investors.
5Fantasy stock market game competitorsStocksathon, MarketDraft, MondayPicksThe category exists, with competitors using no-real-money, weekly challenge, portfolio contest, cash-prize, or workplace-group framing.
6Stock simulator alternativesWall Street Survivor, MarketWatch VSE search result, Investopedia simulator search resultSimulator alternatives emphasize virtual portfolios, learning, trading practice, contests, and portfolio mechanics rather than a draft-first game.
7Regulatory/compliance constraintsInvestor.gov fantasy stock alert, SEC stock-picking game enforcement releasePay-to-play fantasy stock competitions and real-return games can implicate securities laws; no-prize/no-entry/no-advice posture is a major constraint.
8College stock pitch competitionsNotre Dame Investment Club, USF Investment Club, SMU/Boulevard BIG Pitch Comp coverageCollegiate investing competitions are active in 2026 and publicly expose team sizes, deadlines, judging, prize pools, and organizer contacts.
9Portfolio and paper trading competitionsUniversity of Cincinnati Lindner Investment Challenge, Babson search resultPaper portfolio competition behavior exists, including supervised training, real-market simulation, and multi-week contest windows.
10Education simulation alternativesThe Stock Market Game, SIFMA Foundation, RapunzlEducation demand is validated, but products are curriculum, privacy, classroom, and institutional in orientation.
11Finance creator/community toolsStockSpeak, StoryTrading, Discord community search resultsInvestor communities already coordinate around picks, sentiment, alerts, and influencer/community track records.
12Current user sentiment around simulatorsReddit search results for simulator practice, Investopedia delays, student competitionsForum evidence suggests simulators are known and used, but users debate realism, risk-taking, and whether short competitions teach bad habits. Confidence is lower because Reddit is anecdotal.

Source Coverage By Category

Evidence Matrix

Claim Evidence Inference Confidence Assumption Status Decision Impact
College finance clubs are the strongest first ICP. Notre Dame, USF, SMU/Boulevard, UCI, Georgetown, UGA, and Cincinnati examples show active competitions, deadlines, teams, prize pools, and public organizer paths. They are easier to identify and reach than broad retail users, and their recurring event needs create observable pilots. Medium-high Evidence-backed, but product-format fit remains untested. Sets primary ICP and artifact emphasis.
Broad Gen Z/young investor interest is real but less immediately targetable. FINRA/CFA reports U.S. Gen Z investing and social channels; NFCS reports young investors' reliance on word of mouth and social channels; YouGov describes young investors as digital-first and community-informed. There is a large audience for market conversation, but a large audience is not the same as reachable early ICP. Medium Evidence-backed for audience behavior; provisional for game demand. Keeps retail users as secondary expansion, not first ICP.
Fantasy sports framing is strong positioning but not enough to pick the primary ICP. FSGA reports large fantasy participation, young adult skew, football dominance, and draft-party rituals. The metaphor is legible and social, but stock-interest overlap is not directly measured in the research found. Medium Evidence-backed for fantasy behavior; inferred for stock-game fit. Use as message hypothesis, not segment-selection proof.
No-real-money/no-prize/no-advice constraints are essential. Investor.gov warns fantasy stock trading with entry fees/returns may implicate securities laws; SEC enforcement release references a stock-picking game as an unregistered swap issue. Draft Stonk should avoid real-money and prize mechanics in early ICP research and prototype language. High Evidence-backed. Blocks creator/public-contest monetization assumptions from ICP artifact.
Education is validated but likely a separate product path. SIFMA Foundation and The Stock Market Game show massive education reach; Rapunzl shows curriculum and privacy positioning. Educators have real needs and budgets, but school use requires curriculum, privacy, standards, and procurement fit. Medium-high Evidence-backed for education demand; inferred for product mismatch. Defer educator ICP unless user wants an education-first product.

Research Completeness Gate

The evidence is sufficient for a directional ICP selection, but not sufficient to declare product-market fit or pricing.

Required Question

Is the evidence sufficient to approve this ICP direction for a canonical research artifact?

Confidence And Assumptions

Conclusion Confidence What Would Change It
College clubs are the best first ICP. Medium-high Direct evidence that club officers strongly prefer existing simulators or formal pitch competitions and do not want lighter-weight games.
Broad retail remains the largest market. Medium Audience surveys or analytics showing that non-club retail users replay and share faster than club users.
Fantasy sports players are a positioning segment. Medium Evidence of strong overlap between fantasy players and stock-picking interest, or successful acquisition through fantasy channels.
Creators should be deferred. Medium Low-risk creator/community pilots with clear no-advice framing and no prize/entry-fee dynamics.
Educators are a separate path. Medium-high User direction to make Draft Stonk an education product, plus willingness to handle privacy/curriculum requirements.

Alternatives And Lower-Confidence Findings

Recommended Path And File Changes

Already written before approval:

Proposed only after approval:

Deferred by report-first gate: tasks/roadmap.md and tasks/todo.md. The project workflow asks for task tracking, but the ICP skill specifically blocks canonical research/spec/task writes before approval. If approved, task files can be created or updated as part of the write step.

File Change Gate

Canonical research files will not be created until the user approves this page or provides revision feedback.

Required Question

Which file changes should be made after approval?

Approval Gates

Scope And Non-Goals Gate

The proposed artifact preserves the active constraints: fantasy game only, no real-money trading, no cash prizes, no brokerage behavior, no investment advice, and clear mock/delayed-price copy.

Required Question

Should the final ICP artifact keep those constraints strict?

Final Approval Gate

Answer this when the page is ready for canonical write. If anything needs correction, use section feedback YAML instead.

Required Question

What should the agent do next with this pre-approval research?

Compile Review YAML

Use Compile Feedback YAML if you want revisions or clarification without answering every required gate. Use Compile Answers when every required question has been answered and you are ready for agent review.

Required questions remaining: 0